Now, we’re at the part of the offseason shortstop jambaroo where I’ll be writing about potential Tigers acquisitions. To be honest, I think this will be more fun cause these are pretty much all players I’d rather have than Peralta. But, that isn’t to say that every option will be the right option. My goal throughout the jambaroo is to present as much information as possible to encourage an informed choice. Today, we start with The Fielding Bible’s top MLB shortstop of 2012. He won’t be getting any accolades from the Hitting Bible…
Who: Brendan Ryan, Seattle Mariners. Born March 26th, 1982, bats RH.
2012: Ryan was the darling of both metrics and scouts with his glove. The Fielding Bible award was well-deserved; not only did he make an absurd range of plays, but he was also remarkably consistent, making only 9 errors in 134 starts at short.
The hitting…..well, hitting might be a bit of a misnomer. He hit .194/.277/.278, with 3 home runs.
Pros: His range is superb: he doesn’t make errors, he can make all the throws and more, and he possesses a flair for the highlight reel as well. Acquiring Ryan would be an absolutely monumental upgrade to the infield defense, and he might single-handedly turn the Tigers from a bad defensive team to a good one. Pairing Ryan and Infante would give the Tigers the best double-play combo in the division. Remember, the Tigers improved their record by 12 games when they replaced Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett. Ryan would go a long way towards tolerating the sub-par corner defense, and he would decidedly improve the fortunes of all pitchers, especially Porcello and Fister. Last year, Tigers pitchers had a BABIP of .307, second highest in the AL. A better defense can have a multiplicative effect on pitchers; in addition to taking runs off the board, it keeps pitch counts down, reducing strain on starters and dependency on the bullpen.
Ryan is also a patient hitter, achieving a career high walk rate of 9.4% in 2012. Also, Ryan has turned in passable offensive seasons in the past, recording a .740 OPS with St. Louis in 2009. When he has a strong BABIP, he treads water offensively, owing his really awful years to terrible BABIP season (.244 in 2012). Ryan should project for some bounce back.
Cons: Ryan’s walk rate seems high because his primary hitting approach appears to hoping he sees 4 balls before 3 strikes. .194/.277/.278. Only two Tiger hitters with 50 or more PAs in 2012 were worse: Ryan Raburn and Don Kelly. Even adjusting for the park, Brendan Ryan was the worst hitter in all of MLB with a minimum of 400 PAs. He doesn’t hit for power, and his contact skill doesn’t look so hot either (20.9% strikeout rate). He stole 11 bases, but he was caught 5 times, erasing that value. In 2011, with a .299 BABIP, he still only hit .248/.313/.326. It’s easier to hit in Comerica than in Safeco, but you wonder how much that really impacts such an anemic bat. He hit an infield pop up an astonishing 26% of the time in 2012. All things considered, his offensive upside is effectively Danny Worth, and Ryan didn’t do anything differently as a minor leaguer.
Cost of acquisition: This is a little tricky because it’s hard to gauge what Seattle thinks of him. Seattle has some quality MIF prospects on the way–particularly 21 y/o Nick Franklin–but he only just hit AAA, and they will probably be reticent to hand him the full-time job right away. Reserves Munenori Kawasaki and Carlos Triunfel aren’t full-time options, either. Additionally, Ryan is 3rd-year arbitration eligible; at most, he’d get around $3-$4 mil for 2013, which isn’t enough to motivate Seattle to move him.
At the same time, the trade market for a guy that can’t hit isn’t very strong. Unless the Tigers are really committed to him, they won’t give up more than a C prospect or two. This might be a case where the Mariners value him more highly than the general market, which generally limits trade possibilities.
Other notes: The Tigers lineup should be good enough to absorb one bona fide weak spot. With next year’s projection of Jackson, Dirks, Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez, Avila, Infante, and the RF and SS spots, there are already 7 guys who project as average or better. Using Ryan would make a rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Porcello, and Smyly a lot more palatable, allowing the Tigers to devote more resources to making up for Ryan’s shortcomings with a good stick in RF. Teams also can limit their negative offensive impact with judicious pinch-hitting, taking away as many as 100 ABs.
The last all-glove/no-hit shortstop the Tigers used, Adam Everett, posted a line of .238/.288/.325 in 2009. Accordingly, the Tigers were a below-average offensive club that year, ranking 10th in the AL in batting average and 9th in OBP, SLG, and OPS. However, that team had a lot more mediocrity throughout the rest of the lineup, including Placido Polanco (.727 OPS), Brandon Inge (.720), Gerald Laird (.626), and Clete Thomas (.709) playing at least 100 games each.
Ducks on the Pod 