Here comes the first free agent of the jambaroo. Today we consider a player who was a disappointment relative to his draft and prospect hype, but he can still provide solid value as a starting shortstop.
Who: Stephen Drew, Free Agent. Born March 16th, 1983, bats LH.
2012: Stephen Drew started the year under contract with Arizona, but on the disabled list. He was recovering from a particularly nasty broken ankle suffered on July 20th, 2011, returning to action June 27th of 2012. With Arizona, he hit an anemic .193/.290/.311, with 2 home runs in 40 games.
As the Athletics made their surprise division run, they acquired Drew for a low-level prospect. In 39 games with Oakland, Drew posted a line of .250/.326/.382, with 5 home runs. At the end of the season, Oakland declined their side of a $10 mil mutual option.
Pros: As shortstops go, Drew is more accomplished offensively than most. He’s had 3 above-average offensive seasons in his career, owing to a balance of average hit and power tools complemented with a strong approach. His career OPS of .762 is more than acceptable for a shortstop, and he doesn’t fall into the absolutely brutal seasons that mark Hardy’s and Ryan’s careers. His only two years that were significantly below average, 2007 and the injury-shortened 2012, are not terribly worrisome in context.
Drew is also a low error shortstop. His arm strength has not suffered from the ankle injury, and Drew is still capable of making a strong, accurate throw to get an out from the outfield grass.
Cons: It’s hard to see a ton of upside with Stephen Drew. His good hitting numbers all came from a noted hitter’s park, and he’s not provided nearly as much thump away from Arizona. You have to go back to 2010 to see when Drew last made a true impact in a lineup, and that was before the ankle injury. Those types of injuries can linger and even permanently sap things like range and power.
It appeared to me at least that Drew was a step slower than usual in Oakland. Drew wasn’t a player with great range before the injury, and now it’s possible that he’s just average at best. If the offensive upside isn’t there either, there’s only a year or two of age separating him from Jhonny Peralta, in terms of asset value. I think he’s still a tick or two better than Peralta defensively, especially with the arm, but he won’t improve the defense all that much.
It should be noted that the Athletics acquired Drew at a time where their middle infield was a complete disaster. He was not sought by many other teams, and Arizona’s return on the trade–non-prospect SS Sean Jamieson–makes that clear. This trade certainly helped Oakland down the stretch, but it is hardly an affirmative statement on his future value.
Cost of acquisition: As a free agent, his cost is simply whatever the market says. Cautions about his health and upside aside, he’s still a good bet to be a 1.5 WAR player. Drew is the only free agent SS about which you can say that, and it’s not even close. With the supply this barren, his high floor makes him a prime target for any team looking to shore up the position. Fangraphs crowdsourced Drew’s contract at 2 years, $16 mil. That’s not a bad price, but it wouldn’t shock me if a couple teams decided to go past that number out of desperation. Drew’s talents don’t appear to be worth a bidding war any longer.
Other notes: The nice thing about a free agent signing is that they could then flip Jhonny Peralta to one of the teams that lost out on Drew. Peralta’s 1-year option is at a reasonable price, and even after a tough season, teams would roll the dice on him for a C+ type prospect. With as barren as the Tigers minor league has been over the last few seasons, that’s nothing to ignore.
Ducks on the Pod 