The jambaroo moves forth with an entry fairly similar to the last, but with a lot more variability. This guy has been one of my favorite players for quite a while.
Who: JJ Hardy, Baltimore Orioles. Born August 19th, 1982, bats RH.
2012: Despite my effusive praise for Brendan Ryan in the last article, JJ Hardy won the actual AL Gold Glove. While the meaning of that award is dubious at best, Hardy is a legitimately deserving candidate. If he’s not the best AL SS, he’s in the top 3. By raw out totals, one could argue that Hardy had the best defensive season, leading all AL shortstops in assists and double plays, and also having the fewest errors of all full-time players.
Also like Ryan, JJ Hardy had a down year offensively. He hit .238/.282/.389, but added 22 home runs.
Pros: As you can deduce from his assist totals and his home run totals, Hardy packs a ton of strength into his 6’2″, 190 lbs frame. Hardy uses an extremely strong and accurate arm to extend his effective fielding range. While he has lost a step or two since his younger days in Milwaukee, he still has more than enough range to be considered a + defender. He’s also quite possibly the most consistent and sure-handed shortstop in the league, averaging fewer than 10 errors a year throughout his career.
JJ Hardy also gets a ton of bat speed from his arm strength, leading to impressive power for a middle infielder. In addition to 22 homers this season, he hit a career high 30 in 2011. His career OPS of .741 is above the AL average, and when he has good offensive seasons, he’s capable of posting WAR numbers in the 4.4 to 4.8 range. His last good offensive season was only a year ago: Hardy hit .269/.310/.491 in 2011. A bounce-back year might not be a certainty, but it’s definitely possible. Hardy also makes $14 mil over the next 2 season, a very reasonable contract for someone of his talent and production potential.
Cons: Hardy’s never been a high-contact guy, or even a medium-contact guy. With Milwaukee, he usually could use the power threat to work walks and keep his OBP at a respectable level. Since leaving Milwaukee after the 09 season, that’s gone out the window. In his one season with Minnesota in 2010, his OBP was a still-decent .320, but he also missed about 40% of the season. As an Oriole, he’s been an out-machine; his combined OBP is .294, and that’s including a good year. Additionally, he hit into a whopping 21 double plays in 2012.
His diminishing range is also a noted phenomenon. Most observers I’ve read noted that Hardy, while good, is no longer anywhere near Ryan in fielding prowess. Being the 2nd best defender among AL shortstops isn’t all that bad, but he is 30. With his hitting, a reduction in fielding value would bring Hardy back down to mediocrity really quickly.
Hardy is a little injury-prone. He was handed a mostly full-time job as a rookie in 2005. From then til now, he’s averaged 120 games a season. He was limited to 115 games in 09, 101 games in 10, and 129 games in 11. He was completely healthy in 2012, but there’s probably more risk than with the average player.
Cost of acquisition: There’s two factors that make Hardy a good trade candidate in my mind. The first is his declining offense, which makes him less of an indispensable building block, and a lot more of a complementary piece. The second is the emergence of prospect wunderkind Manny Machado. Machado was an above average hitter in AA this year, starting at age 19. He was called up to the majors, hit league average, and was more than capable of handling the defensive role. Machado could be headed back to AAA, but between Baltimore’s surprise playoff appearance, and the stunning breakouts from Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the Orioles have a lot of reasons to hand Machado the job.
On the other hand, the surprise playoff run might motivate Baltimore to keep both shortstops. Neither Wilson Betemit nor Mark Reynolds have any business playing full-time 3B on a contending team. Machado mostly played 3rd last September, and while Baltimore has some impact 3B in their system, the closest is a not-close-to-ready Jonathan Schoop.
Therefore, while JJ Hardy’s hitting makes him a good buy-low candidate, the elevated market price for infielders would probably wash out any value. C and B- prospects aren’t likely to sway Baltimore’s thinking at all. For the Tigers to get Hardy, they’d probably have to commit a major league piece like Porcello or a prospect of the caliber of Avi Garcia. That price could ultimately prove too steep for a SS with questionable offensive utility.
Other notes: If you looked at his career hitting profile and thought “he’s kinda like Brandon Inge,” well, I agree! In fact, his 2012 came really close to mirroring 2007 Brandon Inge. You’re probably then thinking “Well shouldn’t this be in the ‘cons’ section?” I don’t blame you. Hardy’s strikeout and contact issues aren’t THAT drastic, but he’s pretty much Inge Deluxe. You’re getting a lot of the same skills: good power, average approach, bad contact, good range, great arm. That Hardy does from the shortstop position makes him more valuable, but no one’s ever going to be excited about “the next Brandon Inge.”
Ducks on the Pod 